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Looking back, to see clearly forward...

The power of demographics in economics is undeniable. More people = more consumption, economic activity, potential for growth. What is just as important as number of people, is the age of the population. Cultures also bend the economic outcomes. Lastly, expectations of the population is the hardest to predict.

In times of strife, war, drought, natural disaster etc, populations tend to decline and economic activity reduces. Post event, there is a 'reversion to the mean', but what is often misunderstood it the over trend line of economic growth.

Post pandemic boom is the current event. The world slowed dramatically over the last 14 months. Panic and shutdowns reduced spending and consumption, it distorted markets. The Global Government stimulus is just beginning to be felt in the economies around the world. Like the story of the Butterfly wings on one side of the globe, and the tidal wave it creates as it builds across the planet... this is a false idea. This assumes that something is created along the way. The wind the butterfly moved is finite, it is not accretive. It is 'zero sum gain'.

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